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Eight reasons that existential risk estimates are so uncertain

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What is the probability that all of humanity will soon go extinct?

Eight reasons that existential risk estimates are so uncertain titotal May 14, 2026 18 2 3 Share What is the probability that all of humanity will soon go extinct? And if so, how? In my previous article , I showed some data on how people, including experts, respond to this question. When you ask people to estimate the probability of human extinction from various causes by certain dates, their answers varied a lot, often by many orders of magnitudes. For example, below is the results from a survey on AI experts asked about the chance of extinction in the next 5 years. Note the log scale: they g

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