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Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 1: Introduction and cumulative risk) - Reflective altruism

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Even if we use … conservative estimates, which entirely ignor[e] the possibility of space colonization and software minds, we find that the expected loss of an existential catastrophe is greater than the value of 1016 human lives. This implies that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one millionth of one percentage point is at least a hundred times the value of a million human lives. This is Part 1 of a series based on my paper, “Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk.” (Almost) everyone agrees that human extinction would be a bad thing, and that actions which reduce the chance of human extinction have positive value. But some authors assign quite high value to extinction mitigation efforts. For example: These numbers are a bit on the high side. If they are correct, then on many philosophical views the truth of longtermism will be (nearly) a foregone conclusion. I think that these, and other similar estimates, are inflated by many orders of magnitud

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 1: Introduction and cumulative risk) - Reflective altruism Skip to content Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 1: Introduction and cumulative risk) Even if we use … conservative estimates, which entirely ignor[e] the possibility of space colonization and software minds, we find that the expected loss of an existential catastrophe is greater than the value of 10 16 human lives. This implies that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one millionth of one percentage point is at least a hu

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