Building the truth machine - by Andy Hall and Elliot
freesystems.substack.com · 3,053 words · saved by 1 readers
New research on what it would take to turn prediction markets into genuine sources of political intelligence
We are getting much better at predicting the future. AI forecasting systems are climbing leaderboards that were once the exclusive domain of elite human “superforecasters”—and they may soon surpass us at divining the trajectory of our messy, contingent world. Developments in AI dangle the tantalizing prospect that, some day, we might actually be able to see what’s coming next with increasing precision. Prediction markets are the coordinating layer; they attract information by offering monetary rewards to those with useful information about the future. They promise to be platforms where…
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