Prediction Markets’ Next Frontier: Impact and Decision Markets | Galaxy
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research • January 12, 2026 Prediction markets achieved their "zero to one" moment in late 2024 and 2025, establishing themselves as mechanisms for aggregating dispersed information into probabilistic signals. The next use cases may extend this capability beyond answering whether events will occur to addressing what those events mean for asset prices and for organizational decisions. We expect this expansion to take two forms: Impact Markets and Decision Markets. Impact Markets surface the market's collective view on conditional asset valuations (e.g. what bitcoin trades at if the Fed cuts…
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