Response to Tyler Cowen's Existential risk, AI, and the inevitable turn in human history

Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

Predictions are hard, especially about the future. On this we can all agree. Tyler Cowen offers a post worth reading in full in which he outlines his thinking about AI and what is likely to happen in the future. I see this as essentially the application of Stubborn Attachments and its radical agnosticism to the question of AI. I see the logic in applying this to short-term AI developments the same way I would apply it to almost all historic or current technological progress. But I would not apply it to AI that passes sufficient capabilities and intelligence thresholds, which I see as…

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