The One Nine Thesis - Jacob Rintamaki
jacobrintamaki.substack.com · 692 words · saved by 1 readers
2026 will be a very interesting year for robotics.
I believe robotic manipulation could be human speed with at least “one nine” (90%) of general-purpose reliability in the real world by the end of 2026. This is a very provocative claim, as robotic manipulation is neither human-speed nor generally 90% reliable in the real world, and any evaluations we could use to rigorously measure it remain primitive. However, 1X’s recent paper, along with Skild’s Series C announcement, shows that there are dozens of avenues beyond just the doomed “data sweatshop model1” that could be pursued in parallel to rapidly improve the capabilities and…
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