PsyArXiv Preprints | Low Base Rates and a High IQ Selection Threshold Prevented Terman from Identifying Future Nobelists
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Terman Longitudinal Nobel Simulation current.pdf Version: 7 Submitted: August 28, 2019| Last edited : May 14, 2025 Authors Abstract Although the accomplishments of the 1,528 subjects of the Genetic Studies of Genius are impressive, they do not represent the pinnacle of human achievement. Since the early 1990s, commentators have criticized the study because two future Nobelists—William Shockley and Luis Alvarez—were among the candidates screened for the study; but they were rejected because their IQ scores were too low. Critics see this as a flaw of Terman’s methodology and/or…
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