Credit Bubble Stocks: Good Theory Of The "Commodity Supercycle"

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Thanks for the mention. I agree there's going to be a huge wave of bankruptcies-- I would guess 80-90% of the industry over the next five years, and some of the survivors will have to dilute their shareholders to hang on. Also, that's a great point about adverse selection. Loose credit markets select for the most obtusely bullish managements. "If the Chinese knew what assets their retirements were being secured by, they'd probably prefer to spend more now and less in the future." http://y0ungmoney.blogspot.com/2014/11/kill-your-investing-gurus-jim-rogers.html?showComment=1415805035357#c8665703488467800615 "You can't have a politically stable island society where 45 working people support 20 children and 35 retirees, if the retirees demand to spend at a high fraction of their working-age rate. [...] There's just no way 35% of the population can afford to drive around in Winnebagos" http://y0ungmoney.blogspot.com/2014/11/kill-your-investing-gurus-jim-rogers.html?showComment=1415805035

Credit Bubble Stocks: Good Theory Of The "Commodity Supercycle" skip to main | skip to sidebar Credit Bubble Stocks Tuesday, November 11, 2014 Good Theory Of The "Commodity Supercycle" Great post by Young Money , a significant refutation of the "commodity supercycle" delusion: The price of aluminum has fallen significantly over the past century, but copper, lead, zinc, and nickel have shown little real change over time. Despite that, they've been quite volatile: metals price cycles tend to be the same length as overall economic cycle, and sometimes they're even shorter. The mix of volatility a

Credit Bubble Stocks: Good Theory Of The "Commodity Supercycle"

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