If You're Not First, You're (Maybe? Potentially? Probably?) Last

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Convexity of long-tail outcomes and why they matter

If You're Not First, You're (Maybe? Potentially? Probably?) Last Convexity of long-tail outcomes and why they matter 0xsmac Apr 02, 2026 28 1 3 Share One of the most common traps investors fall into regardless of asset class or sector looks something like this: Company A leads an emerging growth category. Company B is #2 or #3 in said category but has comparable technology & trades at a much lower multiple. Therefore, Company B is an attractive investment. On the surface the logic is reasonably tight. If this emerging sector is real and growing then surely the whole competitive field will bene

If You're Not First, You're (Maybe? Potentially? Probably?) Last

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