Understanding the margin of error in election polls | Pew Research Center

Some statistical rules of thumb that smart consumers might think apply in polls are more nuanced than they seem. As is often true in life, it’s complicated.

Short Reads | September 8, 2016 5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls X Facebook Threads LinkedIn WhatsApp Mail Add Us On Google By Andrew Mercer In presidential elections, even the smallest changes in horse-race poll results seem to become imbued with deep meaning. But they are often overstated. Pollsters disclose a margin of error so that consumers can have an understanding of how much precision they can reasonably expect. But cool-headed reporting on polls is harder than it looks, because some of the better-known statistical rules of thumb that a smart consumer mi

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