Reference class problem
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In statistics, the reference class problem is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the probability applicable to a particular case.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia In statistics, the reference class problem is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the probability applicable to a particular case. For example, to estimate the probability of an aircraft crashing, we could refer to the frequency of crashes among various different sets of aircraft: all aircraft, this make of aircraft, aircraft flown by this company in the last ten years, etc. In this example, the aircraft for which we wish to calculate the probability of a crash is a member of many different classes, in which the frequency of…
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