Spencer Farrar on X: "The Problem with Prediction Markets" / X

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To view keyboard shortcuts, press question mark View keyboard shortcuts Home Explore Notifications Chat SuperGrok Premium+ Bookmarks Creator Studio Communities Profile More Post Maanav Khaitan @maanav Article See new posts Conversation Spencer Farrar @SpencerFarrar The Problem with Prediction Markets 1 3 8 94 A blow to the head from a surfing incident left me couch-ridden over the holidays. For someone who struggles with taking time off, the forced sedentary lifestyle was a challenge. Naturally, my brother and I became prediction market fanatics. With news and sports now one of my primary information flows, the order book became our competitive arena. We traded everything: from geopolitical tail risks like the probability of a U.S. invasion of Venezuela (a short position that paid out at the end of the year – just barely), to the NBA. We eventually landed on a strategy that 12x’d our account over 10 days, primarily by identifying mispriced underdogs where the order book skewed too heav

A blow to the head from a surfing incident left me couch-ridden over the holidays. For someone who struggles with taking time off, the forced sedentary lifestyle was a challenge. Naturally, my brother and I became prediction market fanatics. With news and sports now one of my primary information flows, the order book became our competitive arena. We traded everything: from geopolitical tail risks like the probability of a U.S. invasion of Venezuela (a short position that paid out at the end of the year – just barely), to the NBA. We eventually landed on a strategy that 12x’d our account…

Spencer Farrar on X: "The Problem with Prediction Markets" / X

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