Forecasting Transformative AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?

PASTA: Process for Automating Scientific and Technological Advancement.

Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio" --> This is the first of four posts summarizing hundreds of pages of technical reports focused almost entirely on forecasting one number. It's the single number I'd probably most value having a good estimate for: the year by which transformative AI will be developed. 1 By "transformative AI," I mean "AI powerful enough to bring us into a new, qualitatively different future." The Industrial Revolution is the most recent example of a transformative event; others would include the Agricultural Revolu

related reading

• Forecasting transformative AI: the "biological anchors" method in a nutshellcold-takes.com
• The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 1 - Wait But Whywaitbutwhy.com
• Dario Amodei — Machines of Loving Gracedarioamodei.com
• AI 2027ai-2027.com
• Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover — LessWronglesswrong.com
• Dario Amodei — Machines of Loving Gracedarioamodei.com
• The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 2 - Wait But Whywaitbutwhy.com
• What failure looks like — LessWronglesswrong.com
• Why transformative artificial intelligence is really, really hard to achievethegradient.pub
• Dario Amodei — Machines of Loving Gracedarioamodei.com
• Import AI 455: AI systems are about to start building themselves.importai.substack.com
• What failure looks like — AI Alignment Forumalignmentforum.org