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Leading The Parade — LessWrong

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Y’know how a parade or marching band has a person who walks in front waving a fancy-looking stick up and down? Like this guy: The classic 80’s comedy Animal House features a great scene in which a prankster steals the stick, and then leads the marching band off the main road and down a dead-end alley. In the context of the movie, it’s hilarious. It’s also, presumably, not at all how parades actually work these days. If you happen to be “leading” a parade, and you go wandering off down a side alley, then (I claim) those following behind will be briefly confused, then ignore you and continue along the parade route. The parade leader may appear to be “leading”, but they do not have any counterfactual impact on the route taken by everyone else; the “leader” is just walking slightly ahead. (Note that I have not personally tested this claim, and I am eager for empirical evidence from anyone who has, preferably with video.) A lot of questions about how to influence the world, or how to alloca

x Leading The Parade — LessWrong Practice & Philosophy of Science Frontpage 150 Leading The Parade by johnswentworth 31st Jan 2024 11 min read 32 150 Background Terminology: Counterfactual Impact vs “Leading The Parade” Y’know how a parade or marching band has a person who walks in front waving a fancy-looking stick up and down? Like this guy: The classic 80’s comedy Animal House features a great scene in which a prankster steals the stick, and then leads the marching band off the main road and down a dead-end alley. That is not the guy who’s supposed to have that stick. In the context of the

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