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On Bubble Watch

oaktreecapital.com · 5,401 words · saved by 1 readers

Exactly 25 years ago today, I published the first memo that brought a response from readers (after having written for almost ten years without receiving any). The memo was called bubble.com, and the subject was the irrational behavior I thought was taking place with respect to tech, internet, and e-commerce stocks. The memo had two things going for it: it was right, and it was right fast. One of the first great investment adages I learned in the early 1970s is that “being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.” In this case, however, I wasn’t too far ahead. This milestone anniversary gives me an occasion to write again about bubbles, a subject that’s very much of interest today. Some of what I write here will be familiar to anyone who read my December memo about the macro picture. But that memo only went to Oaktree clients, so I’m going to recycle here the part of its content that relates to the subject of bubbles. Since I’m a credit investor, having stopped

On Bubble Watch Opens in a new window Opens an external site Opens an external site in a new window PDF Translations Japanese Korean Simplified Chinese Traditional Chinese Memos from Howard Marks 2025-01-07T08:00:00.0000000Z" pubdate title="Time posted: >1/7/2025 8:00:00 AM (UTC)">Jan 7, 2025 PDF (English) PDF (Translations) Listen to Memo Archived Memos Subscribe On Bubble Watch Exactly 25 years ago today, I published the first memo that brought a response from readers (after having written for almost ten years without receiving any). The memo was called bubble.com , and the subject was the i

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