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Opportunity Markets

paradigm.xyz · 1,500 words · saved by 2 readers

This paper introduces opportunity markets: private prediction markets where those who find opportunities get paid by those who act on them. Music labels, research labs, and VCs all want to find the next big thing before the competition. But the people who first spot opportunities often have no institutional connections. Historically, there hasn’t been a clean way for these parties to find each other and transact. Prediction markets use skin in the game to distill signal from distributed participants. But for someone to make $1M betting XYZ will be huge, someone else needs to bet $1M it won’t. Nobody wants to bet against thousands of opportunities they’ve never even heard of. The natural counterparties for a market like this would be those who could act: labels, employers, funds, etc. But if they were to provide liquidity in a public prediction market, they’d just be subsidizing information their competitors could use just as easily. Opportunity markets address this problem by keeping m

Opportunity Markets Research Opportunity Markets 08.18.2025 | Dave White Matt Liston Outline 1. Introduction 2. Intuition 1. Motivation 2. Existing Mechanisms 3. Mechanism 1. Example 2. Privacy 3. Market Design Details 1. Liquidity Provision 2. Unlimited Markets vs. First N 4. Limiting Exploitation 4. Conclusion Your browser does not support the video tag. Animation by Dave Whyte Introduction Imagine you spot an unsigned band destined for massive success. Instead of cold-calling labels, what if you could bet on them yourself? This paper introduces opportunity markets: private prediction market

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