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OpenAI is projecting unprecedented revenue growth | Epoch AI

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Epoch’s new AI companies database shows the remarkable level and pace of growth of OpenAI’s revenue. It first exceeded $1 billion in 2023 and will exceed $10 billion in 2025. This is impressive, but not unprecedented — a few other companies have matched this growth rate historically. OpenAI’s projections, however, are a different story. According to The Information, in Q3 2025 OpenAI projected its 2028 revenue to be $100 billion. I couldn’t find any examples of a company growing its revenue from around $10 billion to $100 billion in such a short period of time. What happens if OpenAI falls short of these projections? At a minimum, it would likely have to scale back its plans for large compute build-outs. The recently-announced deals with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom imply expenditures of roughly $1.3 trillion within the next decade, and some of this is presumably expected to be financed by revenue or debt raised against revenue.1 But the second-order effects of a miss could be larger. Thi

OpenAI is projecting unprecedented revenue growth | Epoch AI Gradient Updates shares more opinionated or informal takes on big questions in AI progress. These posts solely represent the views of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Epoch AI as a whole. Epoch’s new AI companies database shows the remarkable level and pace of growth of OpenAI’s revenue. It first exceeded $1 billion in 2023 and will exceed $10 billion in 2025. This is impressive, but not unprecedented — a few other companies have matched this growth rate historically. OpenAI’s projections, however, are a diffe

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