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AI Options, not ‘Optimism’ - by Eric Drexler

aiprospects.substack.com · 862 words · saved by 1 readers

‘Optimism’ is about odds of success, but odds are for spectators. Participants weigh options, not odds.

AI Options, not ‘Optimism’ ‘Optimism’ is about odds of success, but odds are for spectators. Participants weigh options, not odds. Eric Drexler Aug 04, 2025 3 Share Optimism clashes with realism. I focus on futures in which a series of difficult problems are solved, yet I strive to be realistic, and I’m not an optimist, so what’s going on? After grappling with alternative approaches to this topic — concrete situations, conditional probabilities, dependency chains — I declared failure and dropped the project. Here are the resulting fragments after some cleanup: Common misguided thinking Here’s

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