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Notes on Existential Risk from Artificial Superintelligence

michaelnotebook.com · 11,275 words · saved by 1 readers

Earlier this year I decided to take a few weeks to figure out what I think about the existential risk from Artificial Superintelligence (ASI xrisk). It turned out to be much more difficult than I thought. After several months of reading, thinking, and talking with people, what follows is a discussion of a few observations arising during this exploration, including: What follows is presented in an interview format. It's not actually an interview, but rather an idealized distillation of conversations I've had with many people. I chose this unusual form after struggling with a more conventional essay or paper form; I think such forms imply more confidence than warranted in most discussions about ASI xrisk. An interview seems a more appropriate mix of evidence, argument, and opinion. Some of the material covers background that will be known to people well read on ASI xrisk1. However, there are also novel contributions – for example, the discussion of emergence2 and of the three xrisk persu

Notes on Existential Risk from Artificial Superintelligence ai xrisk display Astera Institute Sep 18, 2023 With minor revisions: Sep 28, 2023 Earlier this year I decided to take a few weeks to figure out what I think about the existential risk from Artificial Superintelligence (ASI xrisk). It turned out to be much more difficult than I thought. After several months of reading, thinking, and talking with people, what follows is a discussion of a few observations arising during this exploration, including: Three ASI xrisk persuasion paradoxes, which make it intrinsically difficult to present str

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