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Fluent, Cruxy Predictions — LessWrong

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Periodically, people (including me) try to operationalize predictions, or bets, and... it doesn't seem to help much. I think I recently "got good" at making "actually useful predictions." I currently feel on-the-cusp of unlocking a host of related skills further down the rationality tech tree. This post will attempt to spell out some of the nuances of how I currently go about it, and paint a picture of why I think it's worth investing in. The takeaway that feels most important to me is: it's way better to be "fluent" at operationalizing predictions, compared to "capable at all." Previously, "making predictions" was something I did separately from my planning process. It was a slow, clunky process. Nowadays, reasonably often I can integrate predictions into the planning process itself, because it feels lightweight. I'm better at quickly feeling-around for "what sort of predictions would actually change my plans if they turned out a certain way?", and then quickly check in on my intuitiv

x Fluent, Cruxy Predictions — LessWrong Feedbackloop-First Rationality Crux Forecasting & Prediction Planning & Decision-Making Rationality Frontpage 86 Fluent, Cruxy Predictions by Raemon 10th Jul 2024 17 min read 18 86 The latest in the Feedback Loop Rationality series. Periodically, people (including me) try to operationalize predictions, or bets, and... it doesn't seem to help much. I think I recently "got good" at making "actually useful predictions." I currently feel on-the-cusp of unlocking a host of related skills further down the rationality tech tree. This post will attempt to spell

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