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Mantic Monday 2/19/24 - by Scott Alexander

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Manifold has lots of bots. There’s a Silicon League entirely for bots. Lots of bots make lots of money: Most of these bots are boring. They’re bots programmed to automatically buy some market once the price gets low enough, or to arbitrage basically-identical markets, or do some other technical finance maneuver. But you could imagine more interesting bots. Ones that forecasts the same way humans forecast. You could imagine a bot based on ChatGPT that asks “What is the probability of a cease-fire in Ukraine this year?” and bets on ChatGPT’s answer. And by “you could imagine” I mean “there’s now a Humans Vs. Bots tournament on Manifold with an ℳ250,000 prize” Let’s see how they’re doing: All of these bots seem to be making small profits, with GPT in the lead. But what’s this? The Nermit bot is based on FutureSearch.ai, a new company trying to build an AI-based forecaster. Based on their own internal calculations, they claim success: How is this1 possible? Some studies of superforecasters

Mantic Monday 2/19/24 AI forecasters come of age / Prediction market reality TV dating show? / OpenAI's Sora Scott Alexander Feb 20, 2024 67 133 2 Share Manifold has lots of bots. There’s a Silicon League entirely for bots. Lots of bots make lots of money: Most of these bots are boring. They’re bots programmed to automatically buy some market once the price gets low enough, or to arbitrage basically-identical markets, or do some other technical finance maneuver. But you could imagine more interesting bots. Ones that forecasts the same way humans forecast. You could imagine a bot based on ChatG

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