Probabilistic Causation (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

“Probabilistic Causation” designates a group of theories that aim to characterize the relationship between cause and effect using the tools of probability theory. The central idea behind these theories is that causes change the probabilities of their effects. This article traces developments in probabilistic causation, including recent developments in causal modeling. This entry surveys the main approaches to characterizing causation in terms of probability. Section 1 provides some of the motivation for probabilistic approaches to causation, and addresses a few preliminary issues. Section 2 surveys theories that aim to characterize causation in terms of probability-raising. Section 3 surveys developments in causal modeling. Section 4 covers probabilistic accounts of actual causation. In this section, we will provide some motivation for trying to understand causation in terms of probabilities, and address a couple of preliminary issues. According to David Hume, causes are invariably fol

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