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The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2) — LessWrong

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There’s a lot of talk about “algorithmic progress” in LLMs, especially in the context of exponentially-improving algorithmic efficiency. For example: …

x The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2) — LessWrong AI Frontpage 2026 Top Fifty: 36 % 123 The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2) by Steven Byrnes 5th Feb 2026 15 min read 28 123 (Heavily revised on Feb. 9, 2026—see changelog at the bottom.) There’s a lot of talk about “algorithmic progress” in LLMs, especially in the context of exponentially-improving algorithmic efficiency. For example: Epoch AI : “[training] compute required to reach a set performance threshold has halved approximately every 8 months”. Dario Amodei 2025 : “I'd guess the number today is maybe ~4x/year”. Gundlach et

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