The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 1: Maximum growth rates with current production methods
How fast can an AI-driven economy grow? Economists expect a few percentage points; at best those closer to AI development imagine Dyson spheres within years. Who is correct?
How fast could an AI-driven economy grow? Most economists expect a few percentage points at best, comparable to previous general-purpose technologies ( Acemoglu (2024) ). Those closer to AI development tend to imagine something much more radical ( Shulman (2023) ; Davidson and Hadshar (2025) ). This series aims to ground growth rates in how physical production works. Once human labor is automated, the constraint on growth becomes the speed at which the economy's physical capital can reproduce itself. Government input-output tables track the full supply chain of what it takes to produce every c
Explore this link on the map →related reading
- Economics and Transformative AI | Tom Cunningham – Tom Cunninghamtecunningham.github.io
- Why I think AI take-off is relatively slow - Marginal REVOLUTIONmarginalrevolution.com
- Alex Imas and Phil Trammell – What remains scarce after AGI?dwarkesh.com
- Forecasts of AI & Economic Growth | Tom Cunningham – Tom Cunninghamtecunningham.github.io
- Why transformative artificial intelligence is really, really hard to achievethegradient.pub
- The Moon Should Be a Computerpalladiummag.com
- By default, capital will matter more than ever after AGI — LessWronglesswrong.com
- The Industrial Explosion — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Can advanced AI lead to negative economic growth?aleximas.substack.com
- Thoughts by a non-economist on AI and economics – Windows On Theorywindowsontheory.org
- IIIa. Racing to the Trillion-Dollar Cluster - SITUATIONAL AWARENESSsituational-awareness.ai
- The Industrial Explosionforethought.org