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The AI Winter: some possible scenarios – Grey Enlightenment

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1. GPUs are regulated. Or an AI mortarium. This is the solution Eliezer Yudkowsky advocates. The likelihood of this happening is really slim. Good luck getting Congress to ever agree to such a thing, given that four years later TikTok has still not been banned despite a stronger case for TikTok being a threat to national security compared to AI. Same for cryptocurrencies despite being used for fraud and cybercrime. And good luck getting China to ever go along with an AI mortarium unless it voluntarily agrees to it. 2. Major economic crisis/recession, like 2007-2009. 3. The third and imho the most likely outcome is that users and the media simply lose interest. Subsequent iterations of GPT fail to live up to hype. There was huge surge of interest in Chat GPT after it was released to the pubic in Nov. 2022: Remember all the hype in May/June 2022 about Dall-E? So much for that: I remember the dire pronouncements at the time about how Dall-E would render artists unemployable and cause a cr

Here are some possible scenarios for the ‘AI winter’: 1. GPUs are regulated. Or an AI mortarium. This is the solution Eliezer Yudkowsky advocates. The likelihood of this happening is really slim. Good luck getting Congress to ever agree to such a thing, given that four years later TikTok has still not been banned despite a stronger case for TikTok being a threat to national security compared to AI. Same for cryptocurrencies despite being used for fraud and cybercrime. And good luck getting China to ever go along with an AI mortarium unless it voluntarily agrees to it. 2. Major econ

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