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How my views on AI changed every year 2017-2024 - Alexey Guzey

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I was originally going to write a piece called “why i no longer believe in AGI” but then I remembered that I changed my mind on this like 5 times and I have no idea what I’ll believe in another few years. So I figured it would be more honest to just write up the entire timeline and then append future changes to it. Very briefly, I went from feeling that AGI will take decades in 2017-2019 to feeling that it’s imminent within the next few years in 2022-2023, and now I’m so confused by what people mean by “AGI” that I can’t even say if it’s a coherent concept worth discussing. I mean, clearly, AI is an important technology. LLMs are already used by millions of people and are very helpful in some areas of work. But are LLMs or their immediate successors about to replace humans and put us all on UBI-subsistence existence? I don’t think so. Is there such a thing as “general intelligence”? I don’t think so (Alvaro De Menard suggests otherwise in a comment). Is the eschaton about to be immanen

How my views on AI changed every year 2017-2024 created: 2024-08-09 ; modified: 2024-08-22 Table of Contents 5 random top posts > (unauthorized) advice from guest 04 > Best of Holden Karnofsky and Sam Altman > Planes are still decades away from displacing most bird jobs > AI Alignment Is Turning from Alchemy Into Chemistry > lifehacks Introduction I was originally going to write a piece called "why i no longer believe in AGI" but then I remembered that I changed my mind on this like 5 times and I have no idea what I'll believe in another few years. So I figured it would be more honest to just

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