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Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines — LessWrong

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My median expectation is that AGI will be created 3 years from now. I share some thoughts on how to orient to and plan for short AGI timelines.

x Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines — LessWrong AI Timelines AI Frontpage 298 Orienting to 3 year AGI timelines by Nikola Jurkovic 22nd Dec 2024 10 min read 63 298 EDIT 2026/02/12: My median for AGI is now EOY 2029. My quantitative predictions for 2025 were a bit too bullish , and they translated to smaller real-world impacts (on the rate of AI progress and adoption) than I expected. My median expectation is that AGI [1] will be created 3 years from now. This has implications on how to behave, and I will share some useful thoughts I and others have had on how to orient to short timelines. I’ve

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