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Burdensome Details

readthesequences.com · 1,240 words · saved by 1 readers

Merely corroborative detail, intended to give artistic verisimilitude to an otherwise bald and unconvincing narrative… —Pooh-Bah, in Gilbert and Sullivan’s The Mikado1 The conjunction fallacy is when humans rate the probability P(A,B) higher than the probability P(B), even though it is a theorem that P(A,B) ≤ P(B). For example, in one experiment in 1981, 68% of the subjects ranked it more likely that “Reagan will provide federal support for unwed mothers and cut federal support to local governments” than that “Reagan will provide federal support for unwed mothers.” A long series of cleverly designed experiments, which weeded out alternative hypotheses and nailed down the standard interpretation, confirmed that conjunction fallacy occurs because we “substitute judgment of representativeness for judgment of probability.” By adding extra details, you can make an outcome seem more characteristic of the process that generates it. You can make it sound more plausible that Reagan will support

Burdensome Details Source Markdown · Talk Home About Search Contents Burdensome Details ❦ Merely corroborative detail, intended to give artistic verisimilitude to an otherwise bald and unconvincing narrative… —Pooh-Bah, in Gilbert and Sullivan’s The Mikado 1 The conjunction fallacy is when humans rate the probability P ( A , B ) higher than the probability P ( B ) , even though it is a theorem that P ( A , B ) ≤ P ( B ) . For example, in one experiment in 1981 , 68% of the subjects ranked it more likely that “Reagan will provide federal support for unwed mothers and cut federal support to loca

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