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Science and speculation - by Ajeya Cotra

planned-obsolescence.org · 1,009 words · saved by 1 readers

Will we agree about AI risks in time?

Science and speculation Will we agree about AI risks in time? Ajeya Cotra May 01, 2026 64 8 9 Share Science is a social institution like the judicial system. Just like courts make you throw out perfectly good Bayesian evidence like whether the defendant seems like a shifty guy to you or rumors you heard about his whereabouts, 1 the scientific process has epistemically conservative norms about what kinds of evidence and arguments are admissible. This means that the process of science gets to the truth much slower than a perfectly rational Bayesian should, and indeed much slower than many partic

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