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Dorst | Being Rational and Being Wrong | Philosophers' Imprint

journals.publishing.umich.edu · 180 words · saved by 1 readers

Do people tend to be overconfident? Many think so. They’ve run studies on whether people are calibrated: whether their confidence in their opinions matches the proportion of those opinions that are true. Under certain conditions, people are systematically ‘over-calibrated’—for example, of the opinions they’re 80% confident in, only 60% are true. From this empirical over-calibration, it’s inferred that people are irrationally overconfident. My question: When and why is this inference warranted? Answering it requires articulating a general connection between being rational and being right—something extant studies have not done. I show how to do so using the notion of deference. This provides a theoretical foundation to calibration research, but also reveals a flaw: the connection between being rational and being right is much weaker than is standardly assumed—rational people can often be expected to be miscalibrated. Thus we can’t test whether people are overconfident by simply testing w

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