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Simulation Inferences · Gwern.net

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N ick Bostrom’s Simulation Argument⁠ (SA) argues that either: 1. civilizations/entities with tremendous computing power do not exist; 2. they exist, but choose not to simulate primitive civilizations like us (whatever else they might do); 3. or we are likely in such a simulation That is: they don’t exist, they exist but don’t use it, or they exist and use it.⁠⁠1⁠ The SA provides a framework for revisiting the old SF skeptical chestnut “what if, like, we’re just in a computer simulation, man?” with potentially better-grounded reasons for considering it reasonably possible—humanity certainly does run as many small crude simulations as it can about every subject under the sun and is particularly interested in modeling the past, and there are no good long-term reasons for thinking that (should humanity not go extinct or civilization collapse) total computing power will for all time be sharply bounded below the necessary amount for realistic simulations of whole worlds or people. What’s nic

--- title: Simulation Inferences description: How small must be the computer simulating the universe? created: 2009-05-29 modified: 2012-04-15 status: finished confidence: unlikely importance: 4 css-extension: dropcaps-yinit ... Nick Bostrom's [Simulation Argument](!W) (SA) argues that either: 1. civilizations/entities with tremendous computing power do not exist; 2. they exist, but choose not to simulate primitive civilizations like us (whatever else they might do); 3. or we are likely in such a simulation That is: they don't exist, they exist but don't use it, or they exist and use it.^[This

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