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Recursive forecasting: Eliciting long-term forecasts from myopic fitness-seekers — AI Alignment Forum

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We’d like to use powerful AIs to answer questions that may take a long time to resolve. But if a model only cares about performing well in ways that…

x Recursive forecasting: Eliciting long-term forecasts from myopic fitness-seekers — AI Alignment Forum Outer Alignment Redwood Research AI Frontpage 29 Recursive forecasting: Eliciting long-term forecasts from myopic fitness-seekers by Jozdien , Alex Mallen 28th Apr 2026 9 min read 2 29 We’d like to use powerful AIs to answer questions that may take a long time to resolve. But if a model only cares about performing well in ways that are verifiable shortly after answering (e.g., a myopic fitness seeker ), it may be difficult to get useful work from it on questions that resolve much later. In t

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