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Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner

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“Things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.” - Rudiger Dornbusch I’ve had a lot of discussions on my podcast where we haggle out timelines to AGI. Some guests think it’s 20 years away - others 2 years. Here’s where my thoughts stand as of June 2025. Sometimes people say that even if all AI progress totally stopped, the systems of today would still be far more economically transformative than the internet. I disagree. I think the LLMs of today are magical. But the reason that the Fortune 500 aren’t using them to transform their workflows isn’t because the management is too stodgy. Rather, I think it’s genuinely hard to get normal humanlike labor out of LLMs. And this has to do with some fundamental capabilities these models lack. I like to think I’m “AI forward” here at the Dwarkesh Podcast. I’ve probably spent over a hundred hours trying to build little LLM tools for my post production setup. And the experience of try

Blog Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner Continual learning is a huge bottleneck Dwarkesh Patel Jun 02, 2025 1,488 148 168 Share “Things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.” - Rudiger Dornbusch I’ve had a lot of discussions on my podcast where we haggle out timelines to AGI. Some guests think it’s 20 years away - others 2 years . Here’s where my thoughts stand as of June 2025. Continual learning Sometimes people say that even if all AI progress totally stopped, the systems of today would still be far more economi

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