AI 2040 and the Cult of Intelligence | the singularity is nearer

I used to be one of these people. I read Yudkowsky and was like, OMG recursive self improvement hard takeoff AI is coming. Then I joined the real world and actually tried to do things. At comma, we ship a hardware product of similar complexity to a cell phone, and it’s really hard. Reality has lots of finicky details. I would like to see the authors of this document try to change a bike tire. Even with a superintelligent ChatGPT, I suspect they would struggle.

I used to be one of these people. I read Yudkowsky and was like, OMG recursive self improvement hard takeoff AI is coming. Then I joined the real world and actually tried to do things. At comma, we ship a hardware product of similar complexity to a cell phone, and it’s really hard. Reality has lots of finicky details. I would like to see the authors of this document try to change a bike tire. Even with a superintelligent ChatGPT, I suspect they would struggle. In The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect , the hard takeoff works because AI discovers the correlation effect, some quantum trick to man

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• Rohan Kanti

related reading

• The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 1 - Wait But Whywaitbutwhy.com
• The Gentle Singularity - Sam Altmanblog.samaltman.com
• Why AGI Will Not Happen - Tim Dettmerstimdettmers.com
• The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 2 - Wait But Whywaitbutwhy.com
• Preparing for the Intelligence Explosionforethought.org
• 2023 - by Dean W. Ball - Hyperdimensionalhyperdimensional.co
• AI 2040: Plan Aai-2040.com
• Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart Peopleidlewords.com
• Quotes from Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Paperthezvi.substack.com
• AI 2040: Plan A — LessWronglesswrong.com
• Does AI Progress Have a Speed Limit?—Asteriskasteriskmag.com
• Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040 — LessWronglesswrong.com