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There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands

natesilver.net · 1,865 words · saved by 1 readers

Take, for example, this afternoon’s polling release from the British firm Redfield & Wilton. They polled all seven of the core battleground states. And in all seven, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each received between 47 and 48 percent of the vote: Isn’t this a little convenient? Whatever happens, Redfield & Wilton — not a firm with a well-established reputation in the US — will be able to throw up their hands and say “well, we projected a tie, so don’t blame us!”. And since all of these states are also close in the polling averages, they’ll also ensure that they won’t rank at the bottom of the table of the most and least accurate pollsters — although unless the race really is that close, and it probably won’t be, they also won’t rank toward the top. Now granted, our forecast is close too. But it’s based on polling averages: dozens of polls have been released in each of these states over the past month. That greatly increases the sample size. Collectively, they’ve surveyed about 230,0

Politics There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands Some pollsters aren’t telling you what their data really says. Nate Silver Nov 01, 2024 661 334 65 Share Sheep being transported from Redfield Manor to the Wilton Estate on the Isle of Skye It’s obviously a really close race . But for some pollsters, it’s a little too close. Take, for example, this afternoon’s polling release from the British firm Redfield & Wilton. They polled all seven of the core battleground states . And in all seven, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each received between 47 and

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