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Forecasting Transformative AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?
cold-takes.com · 3,114 words · saved by 1 readers
PASTA: Process for Automating Scientific and Technological Advancement.
Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio" --> This is the first of four posts summarizing hundreds of pages of technical reports focused almost entirely on forecasting one number. It's the single number I'd probably most value having a good estimate for: the year by which transformative AI will be developed. 1 By "transformative AI," I mean "AI powerful enough to bring us into a new, qualitatively different future." The Industrial Revolution is the most recent example of a transformative event; others would include the Agricultural Revolu
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