flâneur

Angelica Willianto

0 followers · 234 views

on the atlas — 9

highlights — 19

  • The system works via a consensus mechanism that finds common ground between people who normally disagree. The big issue is that it takes considerable time to reach a consensus. A study of 400 posts containing incorrect information by the Atlantic Council found it took an average of seven hours for a note to appear, by which time millions of people may have already viewed the dodgy posts.
    Vitalik’s Community Notes plan can work — AI prediction market creator
  • My favorite example of truly effortless communication is a memory I have of my grandparents. At the breakfast table, my grandmother never had to ask for the butter – my grandfather always seemed to pass it to her automatically, because after 50+ years of marriage he just sensed that she was about to ask for it. It was like they were communicating telepathically. *That* is the type of relationship I want to have with my computer!
    The case against conversational interfaces « julian.digital
  • Many people look down on prediction markets and compare it to the lottery or Vegas casinos. But the truth is, everyone is predicting all the time. Wall street investors have to predict interest rate changes. Parents have to predict which schools will provide the best environment for their kids. College students have to predict which topics will be covered on their next final. And so on. Some decisions are large and have a much bigger impact. And others are micro decisions which we don't even think about because they're just part of our daily routine. Predicting is a core part of human nature t…
    SKIN IN THE GAME OR STFU
  • As Alex Tabarrok bluntly puts it... "A bet is a tax on bullshit"
    SKIN IN THE GAME OR STFU
  • SKIN IN THE GAME OR STFU
    SKIN IN THE GAME OR STFU
  • One interesting example that Small Brain gave in this Seed Club interview is enabling key opinion leaders (KOLs) to source their content from avid followers. For example, let's say you set up the same NYT model on predicting Elon's next tweet. Elon goes through the responses and sees 1 that he finds funny or intelligent and posts it. Then that person gets the payout for literally creating content for Elon. Of course, this would have to be anonymous to prevent any bias in the process.
    Terminally Onchain by YB | From Binary to Analog Prediction Markets
  • The TMR.NEWS mechanic is simple: submit a prediction - any prediction - for tomorrow’s New York Times front page article headline, and get paid out proportionally based on how semantically similar your prediction is to the true result. This relies on a useful property of LLMs that allows us to compute the similarity of text via computing the distance between their model-outputted embeddings.
    Announcing TMR.NEWS — Sofiane
  • To me, info finance is that, but correct by construction. Similar to the concept of correct-by-construction in software engineering, info finance is a discipline where you (i) start from a fact that you want to know, and then (ii) deliberately design a market to optimally elicit that information from market participants.
    From prediction markets to info finance
  • Here’s a new set of future use cases: Verify a product’s price at a specific time from e-commerce sites. Prove a scientific paper's publication date from an academic journal. Confirm event ticket availability or sales status at a certain point in time. Verify the terms of a legal document posted on a law firm’s site. 5.Prove an official government notice was issued at a certain date.
    HackEthereum
  • By providing a method for tying together onchain and offchain actions, Web Proofs allow users to simultaneously access the greater current availability of web2 users while providing the cryptographic assurances of onchain transactions.
    Nascent.xyz | Crypto’s AirTag Moment: Unlocking Mass Adoption with Web Proofs
  • An early example of this is ZKP2P, a fiat on/off-ramp that enables peer-to-peer transactions where one party sends fiat using a service like Venmo or Revolute, and the other sends crypto which is automatically released based on Web Proofs once the payment has been made.
    Nascent.xyz | Crypto’s AirTag Moment: Unlocking Mass Adoption with Web Proofs
  • Where it gets really interesting is when teams start using onchain incentives to meaningfully drive offchain behavior. Imagine: Music NFTs that in order to mint, the artist has to be in your 10 most listened to on Spotify over the past month A $KIRKLAND memecoin that has weekly inflation claimable based on how much you spent at Costco A pot of USDC that is used to automatically reward contributors who get PRs merged into an important open source project
    Nascent.xyz | Crypto’s AirTag Moment: Unlocking Mass Adoption with Web Proofs
  • As a first pass, you can now make tokens claimable based on the: artists listened to on Spotify stocks held on Robinhood purchases made on Amazon rides taken on Uber deliveries made for DoorDash
    Nascent.xyz | Crypto’s AirTag Moment: Unlocking Mass Adoption with Web Proofs
  • To our knowledge, this concept was first proposed by a team of Cornell researchers in 2016 in the Town Crier whitepaper. Recently, various flavors of this approach have been brought into production by pioneering companies including Pluto, Clique, Opacity Network, OpenLayer, Reclaim Protocol, and others.
    Nascent.xyz | Crypto’s AirTag Moment: Unlocking Mass Adoption with Web Proofs
  • This means that virtually any web2 data can be put onchain in a verifiable manner, without the source of that data needing to take any action–or being able to prevent it.
    Nascent.xyz | Crypto’s AirTag Moment: Unlocking Mass Adoption with Web Proofs
  • How is this different from just pulling data from an API and putting it onchain? Well, access to APIs can easily be shut off. If a tech company doesn't like an application using their data to distribute tokens or enable financial activity outside of their platforms, they can easily shut down those APIs.
    Nascent.xyz | Crypto’s AirTag Moment: Unlocking Mass Adoption with Web Proofs
  • To be clear, there are no guarantees being made here about truth, only about the data and its source. Web Proofs can provide strong guarantees that ESPN.com has reported that the Warriors defeated the Lakers last night, that a certain user has purchased an Eras Tour ticket, or that an Uber driver has completed 1,000 trips with a 5.00 rating, but they don’t provide any independent verification that ESPN didn’t misreport the score, the fan didn’t give the ticket to a friend, or the Uber driver’s brother wasn’t the person behind the wheel.
    Nascent.xyz | Crypto’s AirTag Moment: Unlocking Mass Adoption with Web Proofs
  • ‍Instead of paying for advertising and hoping users show up, crypto has industrialized shaping behavior and rewarding engagement.
    Nascent.xyz | Crypto’s AirTag Moment: Unlocking Mass Adoption with Web Proofs
  • Looking back at our speedrun build of a new financial system, what has our industry uniquely gotten really good at? Incentives.
    Nascent.xyz | Crypto’s AirTag Moment: Unlocking Mass Adoption with Web Proofs