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From efficiency to resilience: the repricing of real assets | Franklin Templeton

franklintempleton.co.uk · 1,124 words · saved by 1 readers

Markets are not short of data. Oil prices, inflation prints, defence spending, power demand and industrial policy all move continuously. The issue is not information. It’s how those signals connect. Taken in isolation, each data point looks familiar. Taken together, they point to something less comfortable: a regime shift in the global economy. That shift stretches beyond the reach of a traditional macro toolkit. Growth, inflation and rates no longer move independently when economics is being pulled into questions of security, industrial policy and state capacity. Michael Every’s neo-mercantilist framework captures that change neatly. It shifts the focus from efficiency to productive power—from optimisation to resilience.1 Viewed through that lens, the contours of the shift become clearer. Geopolitics has moved back to the centre of economic decision-making. As Peter Zeihan has argued, the globalised system rested on a stable security architecture.2 That foundation is no longer guarant

Key takeaways Global markets are moving through a structural shift rather than a normal cycle, as geopolitics, industrial policy, technology and debt increasingly reshape how economies operate and how capital is allocated. The next phase of growth is becoming more constrained by physical capacity. Power, grids, semiconductors, logistics and energy infrastructure are emerging as critical bottlenecks, as the system moves from molecules toward electrons—and increasingly toward atoms. In this environment, real assets are being repriced based on the essential flows they secure. Infrastructure,…

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