Critical minerals geopolitics in 2026: risks, supply chains and global power shifts | ODI: Think change
In 2026, competition over critical minerals continues reshaping geopolitical risk, industrial policy and national security. From US project finance and EU strategic autonomy to China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, four dynamics will define the global race for mineral supply chains. Critical minerals that underpin economic and national security remain at the top of the geoeconomic agenda, with global competition for these resources showing no signs of slowing in 2026. These materials are central to the energy transition, digital infrastructure and defence capabilities, and the struggle for supply chain security and access to them is both shaping, and being shaped by, wider geopolitical dynamics. Understanding these geopolitical dynamics is essential both for countries seeking to diversify and secure supply chains and for producer countries looking to capture value from rising demand. Looking ahead to 2026, our Senior Geopolitical Risks Advisor Olena Borodyna highlights four key areas to watch i