The Future Is Weird | near.blog
After much reading and discussions of post-TAI (transformative AI) futures from those leading the AGI labs and startups of SF, there’s a few consistent disagreements I find myself having. While I generally agree with narrow-yet-strong capability predictions, for example that AI will enable the creation of new software, pharmaceuticals, and companies at much greater speeds, I consistently disagree with the social and cultural predictions I see from my peers. Humanity is often treated as a constant in such predictions, with technology as the mutating variable. This leads to wildly miscalibrated predictions about the future. This post muses on this topic a bit. It contains four sections: When discussing long-term futures (post-AGI/ASI) it’s common for technologies like genetic engineering and neural interfaces to be brought up, as most serious thinkers realize it is simply not possible for humanity to persist as-is. Competitive forces will destroy those who are not augmented with technolo