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[2606.25076] Machine learning is revolutionizing weather forecasting -- the next step is a change in how we work

arxiv.org · 7,981 words · saved by 1 readers

Abstract:Following the success of machine learning in producing weather predictions with competitive skill compared to complex traditional systems, this article shifts attention from forecast output to the working practices that make prediction systems possible. We argue that machine learning and recent digital technologies will reshape the forecasting value chain: how models are coded and developed, how observations and Earth-system data are exploited, how data and computing are managed, how systems are verified, and how information is created, evaluated and turned into services. We discuss six non-exhaustive areas in which agentic software engineering, open and compressed data, shared verification workflows, interactive computing and generative methods may make modelling, evaluation and service creation faster, more interactive and more widely accessible. These changes will require weather and climate centres to adapt their infrastructures, data stewardship, trust and quality-assurance frameworks, skills and service delivery while maintaining scientific understanding, operational reliability, human expertise and their public-service role.

Highlights Machine learning is revolutionizing weather forecasting – the next step is a change in how we work Peter Dueben, Peter Bauer, Oliver Fuhrer, Nikolay Koldunov, Jørn Kristiansen • Agentic coding, generative methods and modern software engineering will change the tools and workflows used to develop weather and climate models.…

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