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Will truckers be automated? (from the comments) - Marginal REVOLUTION

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I wonder how many of the people making predictions about the future of truck drivers have ever ridden with one to see what they do? One of the big failings of high-level analyses of future trends is that in general they either ignore or seriously underestimate the complexity of the job at a detailed level. Lots of jobs look simple or rote from a think tank or government office, but turn out to be quite complex when you dive into the details. For example, truck drivers don’t just drive trucks. They also secure loads, including determining what to load first and last and how to tie it all down securely. They act as agents for the trunking company. They verify that what they are picking up is what is on the manifest. They are the early warning system for vehicle maintenance. They deal with the government and others at weighing stations. When sleeping in the cab, they act as security for the load. If the vehicle breaks down, they set up road flares and contact authorities. If the vehicle d

Dan Hanson writes : I wonder how many of the people making predictions about the future of truck drivers have ever ridden with one to see what they do? One of the big failings of high-level analyses of future trends is that in general they either ignore or seriously underestimate the complexity of the job at a detailed level. Lots of jobs look simple or rote from a think tank or government office, but turn out to be quite complex when you dive into the details. For example, truck drivers don’t just drive trucks. They also secure loads, including determining what to load first and last and how

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