On Causality - Carlos Chavez

A History of How Economics Learned to Think About Cause and Effect

Every economist knows the phrase: correlation is not causation. We repeat it to students, to journalists, to anyone who confuses a regression coefficient with a causal claim. Yet ask most economists to explain what causation actually is, and you get hesitation. We know how to identify causal effects. We know the threats to identification. But the philosophical question underneath-what does it mean for X to cause Y?-rarely comes up. This is not an oversight. The profession learned, through painful experience, that metaphysical debates about causation lead nowhere useful. Better to focus on…

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