GPU futures and the locus of inference - by Dave Friedman
I’ve previously written about the idea of GPU futures, and this seems to elicit a lot of confusion or ire from readers. I get a bunch of DMs, emails and unsubscriptions every time I write about it. This is an AI newsletter! I hear you say. What’s dirty finance doing in my newsletters? Well, this post is an FAQ to help my subscribers understand why GPU futures might be important for the future of AI. A futures contract is a promise to buy or sell something at a fixed price on a fixed date in the future. Farmers use them to lock in grain prices. Airlines use them to manage jet fuel costs. Traders use them to speculate. But not every good or service can be turned into futures. You need: A standardized unit (barrel of oil, bushel of corn), lots of buyers and sellers with ongoing exposure, a way to measure spot prices, and a trusted mechanism to settle disputes. When these conditions exist, futures markets thrive. GPUs are the scarce resource behind AI. They’re expensive, oversubscribed, an
I’ve previously written about the idea of GPU futures, and this seems to elicit a lot of confusion or ire from readers. I get a bunch of DMs, emails and unsubscriptions every time I write about it. This is an AI newsletter! I hear you say. What’s dirty finance doing in my newsletters? Well, this post is an FAQ to help my subscribers understand why GPU futures might be important for the future of AI. A futures contract is a promise to buy or sell something at a fixed price on a fixed date in the future. Farmers use them to lock in grain prices. Airlines use them to manage jet fuel costs.…
related reading
- The birth of GPU futuresdavefriedman.substack.com
- The birth of the AI compute marketdavefriedman.substack.com
- Nvidia H100 GPUs: Supply and Demand · GPU Utils ⚡️gpus.llm-utils.org
- The Short Case for Nvidia Stock | YouTube Transcript Optimizeryoutubetranscriptoptimizer.com
- Why AGI Will Not Happen - Tim Dettmerstimdettmers.com
- Volatility in the GPU rental market - by Neha Desarajuquantfutures.substack.com
- Designing Compute Markets | Kavish Gargkavishgarg.com
- The Most Expensive GPU is The One You Didn't Hedge - ADM Investor Servicesadmis.com
- The Most Expensive GPU is The One You Didn't Hedge - ADM Investor Servicesadmis.com
- $2 H100s: How the GPU Bubble Burst - by Eugene Cheahlatent.space
- Don Wilson on the GPU Market's Trillion Dollar Question | Odd Lotsyoutube.com
- Navigating the High Cost of AI Compute | Andreessen Horowitza16z.com