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Industrial Colossus: China vs 1950s America

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Chinese industrial policy maximalist Lu Feng argues that China today resembles the United States on the eve of World War I. But the analogy is faulty. China’s industrial strength—and its broader economic trajectory—is much closer to the United States of the 1950s.1 Most striking is the convergence in urbanization rates. In 2024, China stood exactly where the United States did in the 1950s. Vehicle penetration per capita fits a post-WWI interpretation as well. Now consider 1) the United States and China’s share of manufacturing exports and 2) share of total global manufacturing by value added: If China were truly in the position America occupied before World War I, we should expect its share of global manufacturing to continue surging. At the very least, we might expect it to reach a 45 percent share of global manufacturing—a level the U.S. only attained after Europe’s industrial capacity had been devastated by World War II. The claim that China will account for 45 percent of global man

Chinese industrial maximalist Lu Feng argues that China today resembles the United States on the eve of World War I. But the analogy is faulty. China’s industrial strength—and its broader economic trajectory—is much closer to the United States of the 1950s.1 Most striking is the convergence in urbanization rates. In 2024, China stood exactly where the United States did in the 1950s. Source: US, Our World In Data; China, NBS, 常住城镇化率 Vehicle penetration per capita fits a post-WWI interpretation as well. Source: US, Oak Ridge National Lab baed on US Census; China, NBS search “民用汽车保有量。 Now…

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