The Magnus Challenge — LessWrong
Let's say you're a club chess player with an Elo of 1500 (early intermediate). If you can beat Magnus Carlsen, rated 2800, at a game of one minute bullet chess, you win a billion dollars. Magnus only gets one minute on his clock, but you get one year on your clock. Even given that advantage, you don't have a chance. However, there's a twist: During your year of time, you can challenge any other player to a chess game. They get one minute on their clock, you get as much time as you like. If you beat them, they can play Magnus for you instead, using the rest of your remaining time. Or, they can challenge another player, who can challenge another player... who can play Magnus in your stead. If at any point you or one of your proxies lose a game, you lose the challenge and go home empty-handed. We'll just pretend draws never happen. The question: What is the optimal strategy for beating Magnus, and do you have enough time to have at least even odds of beating him? Some assumptions: You don