Searching for the GOAT of tennis win prediction
Sports forecasting models – beyond their interest to bettors – are important resources for sports analysts and coaches. Like the best athletes, the best forecasting models should be rigorously tested and judged by how well their performance holds up against top competitors. Although a number of models have been proposed for predicting match outcomes in professional tennis, their comparative performance is largely unknown. The present paper tests the predictive performance of 11 published forecasting models for predicting the outcomes of 2395 singles matches during the 2014 season of the Association of Tennis Professionals Tour. The evaluated models fall into three categories: regression-based, point-based, and paired comparison models. Bookmaker predictions were used as a performance benchmark. Using only 1 year of prior performance data, regression models based on player ranking and an Elo approach developed by FiveThirtyEight were the most accurate approaches. The FiveThirtyEight mod