Accelerating Returns Trendlines

31 technology, market and adoption curves, fitted on log scales, read through Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns.

After Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns” (2001) Kurzweil argued that information technologies improve exponentially, and that progress speeds up as each new paradigm takes over from the last. Here are 31 curves an investor can underwrite, each plotted on a log scale so the doubling time reads straight off the line. Compare all curvesAbout the data Technology compounds faster than its markets. Transistors per chip double every 2 years. Chip-industry revenue takes about 12. Buyers keep most of the gain. Adoption keeps getting faster. ChatGPT and Starlink doubled in under a…

saved by

• Aryan Naik
• Ishan Mukherjee
• Ishaan Panigrahi

related reading

• The Law of Accelerating Returnsen.wikipedia.org
• the Law of Accelerating Returns. « the Kurzweil Librarywritingsbyraykurzweil.com
• Learning curves: What does it mean for a technology to follow Wright’s Law? | Our World in Dataourworldindata.org
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• Moore's Law for Everythingmoores.samaltman.com
• AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years — Basil Halperinbasilhalperin.com
• Ray Kurzweil - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
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