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Lost in the Literature: AI and the Problem of Mathematical Search

dsleo.github.io · 2,434 words · saved by 1 readers

In 2016, Terry Tao published a whimsical blog post in which he derived a mathematical formula for grading. Rather than relying on binary “True/False” answers, he proposed a scheme in which students would report both an answer and a subjective confidence level. Using ideas from information theory, Tao arrived at a logarithmic scoring rule designed to incentivize students to report their true beliefs rather than strategically hedging.

2026-02-17 In 2016, Terry Tao published a whimsical blog post in which he derived a mathematical formula for grading. Rather than relying on binary “True/False” answers, he proposed a scheme in which students would report both an answer and a subjective confidence level. Using ideas from information theory, Tao arrived at a logarithmic scoring rule designed to incentivize students to report their true beliefs rather than strategically hedging. Almost immediately, a commenter going by sflicht pointed out that Tao had independently rediscovered a well-known concept: proper scoring rules, a…

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