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The AI data center deals that no one can verify

davefriedman.substack.com · 1,392 words · saved by 1 readers

Over the past year, the AI industry has announced more than half a trillion dollars of infrastructure commitments. In mature infrastructure markets, you don’t need to read every contract to evaluate these claims. You get a verification layer from markets and standardization: forward electricity prices, standardized capacity definitions, project finance diligence, credit spreads, and, critically, derivatives that force comparable terms. A megawatt means something precise because it has to. In AI infrastructure, that verification layer barely exists. The result is a strange regime: numbers large enough to move trillion-dollar markets, paired with disclosures too non-standard to value. This is not a moral complaint about secrecy. Big corporate contracts are often confidential. The problem is structural: the economic terms required for valuation are not publicly observable, and the units themselves aren’t standardized. That combination systematically invites the market to price optionality

The AI data center deals that no one can verify When there's no external validation of multi-billion-dollar deals, how can the market price them? Dave Friedman Jan 12, 2026 13 2 Share Over the past year, the AI industry has announced more than half a trillion dollars of infrastructure commitments. In mature infrastructure markets, you don’t need to read every contract to evaluate these claims. You get a verification layer from markets and standardization: forward electricity prices, standardized capacity definitions, project finance diligence, credit spreads, and, critically, derivatives that

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